How much do I need to retire at 50 on $100,000 a year?
To retire at 50 and spend $100,000 a year in today's dollars, with your savings lasting through age 95, you'd need about $2,240,000 invested by age 50 in a typical market. If markets are weak in your first retirement years you'd need closer to $3,250,000; if they're strong, about $1,610,000 would be enough. For comparison, the common 25x rule of thumb points to $2,500,000. These are portfolio-only figures, before any Social Security — a benefit you claim later lowers what your savings alone must cover.
What's behind these numbers
Most retirement rules of thumb compress your plan into one average-return figure. This one runs the same year-by-year projection the live calculator uses, across three market paths — a weak start (bear), a typical market (base), and a strong one (bull) — because the order and spread of returns in your first retirement years decides outcomes far more than the long-run average does. Every figure above assumes:
- Spending is in today's dollars and lasts through age 95.
- Portfolio-only — Social Security is excluded (it only lowers the requirement).
- Savings split ~65% pre-tax (401k/IRA), 20% Roth, 15% taxable; federal taxes and RMDs applied.
- Allocation glides from 60% stocks at retirement to 30% by age 95.
- Bear / base / bull are the ~10th / 50th / 90th-percentile return paths from history, not a forecast.
Common questions
How is this different from the 4% rule?
The 4% (or 25x) rule gives one number — here, $2,500,000. This model instead runs your plan through weak, typical and strong markets, because the order and spread of returns in your first retirement years decides outcomes far more than the long-run average does. The spread between $3,250,000 and $1,610,000 is that sequence-of-returns risk made visible.
Does this include Social Security?
No — the figures are what your own portfolio has to cover. Social Security is a personal number, and it only reduces what your savings must fund, so leaving it out keeps the estimate on the safe side. Add your expected benefit in the calculator to see a lower required balance.